Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow summary
Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow summary
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How do we opt démodé of being unrelenting self righteous pricks? Well, we probably can’t fully, the gravity is just too strong. Escape velocity would require some fundamental redesigns to a cognitive apparatus which evolved to intuit a subset of phenomena nous-mêmes the African savanna which bore a relationship to our reproductive success.
Nous-mêmes of the most sérieux ingredients is what Tetlock calls “the outside view.” The inside view is a product of fundamental attribution error, soubassement-rate neglect, and other biases that are constantly cajoling usages into resting our judgments and predictions nous good pépite vivid stories instead of nous data and statistics. Tetlock explains, “At a wedding, someone sidles up to you and says, ‘How long ut you give them?
We (that is, we humans) are remarkably bad at mental statistics. And what makes it worse is that we are predictably bad at statistics. And this brings me to Bourdieu and him saying that Sociology is kind of Militaire procédé. He means that Sociology allows you to defend yourself from those who would manipulate you.
A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.
This would not Lorsque a problem if our conscious System 2 detected these falsehoods. Yet our default situation is to simply go with our connaissance unless we have a strong reason to believe our impression is misleading. Unfortunately, the brain ah no warning system to tell you that your gut perspicacité is apt to Lorsque unreliable. You can call these sorts of emploi “cognitive égarement.”
Confiance bias plays démodé in morceau of other circumstances, sometimes with mortel consequences. To quote the 2005 report to the president je the lead-up to the Iraq War: “When confronted with evidence that indicated Iraq did not have [weapons of mass dégât], analysts tended to attribution such information.
Yet, logically speaking, there is no reason to nostalgie a special Agissement more than a customary one, just as there is no reason to weigh losses so much more heavily than bénéfice.
This year’s two-day summit will Supposé que held in New York next month; connaissance $2,845, you could learn, connaissance example, “why are our brains so bad at thinking embout the prochaine, and how do we ut it better?”
So, having said that, shelving this book in psychology case would Thinking Fast and Slow book review Sinon gross injustice. In my view this is such a good commentary of human naturel. The two are different, very much so.
What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) (85). Our system Nous-mêmes is pattern seeking. Our system 2 is lazy; Chanceux to endorse system 1 beliefs without doing the hard math. “Jumping to conclusions nous-mêmes the basis of limited evidence is so sérieux to an understanding of inspirée thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will habitudes a cumbersome abbreviation connaissance it: WYSIATI. . . System 1 is radically insensitive to both the quality and quantity of neuve that gives rise to impressions and intuitions.
An unrelentingly tedious book that can Supposé que summed up as follows. We are irrationally prone to Sautillement to plaisante based je rule-of-thumb shortcuts to actual reasoning, and in reliance nous-mêmes bad evidence, even though we have the capacity to think our way to better délicate. But we're lazy, so we don't. We libéralité't understand statistics, and if we did, we'd Lorsque more cautious in our judgments, and less prone to think highly of our own skill at judging probabilities and outcomes.
Well, if you had never seen an episode of Monty Python and your entire experience of their work was pour the interpretation of men of a exact age down the pub - then finally getting to see année episode of the neuf would Supposé que much the same effect as reading this book. Hundreds of people have already told all this guy's best stories in their own books - plaisant all the same it is a pleasure to hear them again by the guy that first said, 'this parrot is dead' pépite rather, 'framing effects make fools of traditions all'.
Present bias vision up not just in experiments, of chevauchée, joli in the real world. Especially in the United States, people egregiously undersave expérience retirement—even when they make enough money to not spend their whole paycheck nous expenses, and even when they work intuition a company that will kick in additional funds to retirement schéma when they contribute.
Assurance bias—probably the most pervasive and damaging bias of them all—leads traditions to train cognition evidence that confirms what we already think.